Evidence-based Innovation

Why this matters for your decision

Many innovation decisions are made on the basis of internal alignment, experience and surveys. That is understandable, because these sources are quickly available. Research shows, however, that intentions only partly turn into action and that stated purchase intent reflects sales less well for new products in particular than for existing ones. If you plan exclusively on statements, you carry an error into the business case whose direction you do not know.

Evidence-based therefore does not mean “more studies”, but the right kind of evidence in the right place. Surveys and interviews are suited to understanding motives and ranking many ideas. Observed behaviour is suited to the question of whether a specific offer is chosen. And timing matters: behavioural evidence before the budget is worth more than the same evidence after the launch, because variants can then still be changed cheaply.

Evidence-based innovation is also a matter of traceability. If it is settled in advance which metric counts and from when a result is reliable, decisions can be explained later, even if a launch falls short of expectations.

Example

An insurer is considering launching a supplementary dental tariff with a new benefit promise. The survey shows high approval for two promises: “Immediate cover with no waiting period” and “Professional teeth cleaning included”. Instead of choosing the promise with the higher approval, the team checks both in a Painted Door Test at an identical price. Around 2,800 visitors per variant reach the offer page. “Immediate cover” reaches 2.9 per cent measured sign-up intent, “Teeth cleaning included” 1.8 per cent. In the survey, teeth cleaning was ahead.

How it differs

Data-driven decision-making is the broader term: it covers any kind of data, including sales and usage data after the launch. Evidence-based innovation focuses on evidence before the investment.

Test and Learn describes the mindset of checking and learning in small steps. A Behavioural Gate is the organisational anchoring: the behavioural test becomes the rule before an approval. Lean startup approaches with an MVP also belong to the family, but usually require a working minimal product.

Limitations

Even the best evidence is only a snapshot. A behavioural test before the launch measures the response to an offer in one channel at one point in time. Repeat purchase, satisfaction with use and competitor reactions only become visible in the market. A poor test design, for example variants that differ in several respects at once, creates false clarity.

Evidence does not replace judgement. Strategic fit, cost and technology remain part of the decision. Horizon delivers the behavioural data point from a Painted Door Test with real people, and those responsible make the decision.