Decision Intelligence

Why this matters for your decision

Many companies have more data than ever before, and yet major decisions are often still made on the basis of judgement and consensus. Decision intelligence reverses the perspective: first the decision is described, for example which of three tariffs will be launched, then the question of which data would actually change this decision.

For decisions about new offers, prices and promises, exactly one data point is often missing: how real people behave when they are faced with the offer. Sales and usage data describe what already exists; surveys provide statements. A behavioural test before the investment adds observed behaviour towards an offer that does not yet exist.

In practice, this means: before data is collected, it is recorded which options are up for choice, which uncertainty most influences the decision and which result would lead to which option being chosen. This makes it visible whether an additional test can change the decision at all, or whether a different question matters more.

The division of roles is important. Data and models frame the trade-off; they do not make the decision. The people responsible weigh demand, costs, technology and strategy against each other. Horizon delivers the behavioural data point; the people responsible make the decision.

Example

An insurer faces the question of whether to launch a new motor tariff with a telematics discount. The decision model contains costs for technology and sales, expected loss ratios and demand. For demand, a Painted Door Test delivers two values: with the telematics discount, the tariff achieves 1.8 percent measured sign-up intent, without the discount at the higher price 2.1 percent, with around 3,000 visitors per variant. The model shows that, under these assumptions, the telematics tariff only pays off through lower claims. The team clarifies that question next.

How it differs

Business intelligence reports what has happened: revenue, sales, KPIs. Decision intelligence starts from the decision at hand. Evidence-based innovation is related, but focuses on evidence before investing in new offers. The Behavioural Gate is a concrete building block that incorporates behavioural evidence into an approval step.

Limitations

Because the term is vague, it is worth clarifying in each case what is meant: a piece of software, a method or a mindset. More data only improves a decision if it reduces the decisive uncertainty. A behavioural test reduces uncertainty about demand for an offer, not about costs, technology or competition. Models that derive demand for offers that do not exist from historical data need a basis that often does not exist for something new.